two-degree Increase in global rise what causes ?

If the world gets warmer by two degrees Celsius, it will be catastrophic. To prevent this, the United Nations signed the international Paris Treaty, which aims to bring the global average of temperatures below the pre-industrial levels. If regulations can be made on time, we can have a chance to see what our Blue Earth looks like before the factories start emitting greenhouse gases into the air. In the last 20 years, all studies, agreements and practices related to global warming have focused on "two degrees". What is the significance of these two degrees?

In 1975, environmental economist William Dawbney Nordhaus said he saw the warming planet as a threat to the global economy. Nordhaus, a researcher at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, says, "Do we control carbon dioxide? "Asked the question. According to Nordhaus, an increase of 2 ° C, which would result in carbon dioxide in the global average temperature, will change climate in ways that have never seen in the last few hundred thousand years.

What was an economist based on and why did he stand on two sides? Nordhaus suggested this not based on his own estimates but on scientific evidence. It was known that carbon dioxide warmed the planet. Nordhaus calculated what would happen only if the concentration in the atmosphere doubled. In this case, the global increase was equal to 2 ° C warming. Nordhaus also predicted that by 2030, "dangerous days" would be entered.


Scientists have been warned against the growing threat of warmth due to human-induced greenhouse gases during the next 20 years following Nordhaus's warning. In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established to prevent dangerous human interventions for drought, but did not impose any limitations on rising emissions or rising global temperature. It took four more years for a two-decade decision to be made, and a decision was reached when the Council of Europe environmental ministers acted. The United Nations finally granted two degrees in the Paris Treaty of 2016, 40 years after Nordhaus's "two degrees" warning.

When heard for the first time, a two degree heat increase may seem insignificant. Even the temperature fluctuations of two degrees in daily temperatures are not even noticeable. However, global warming and climate change topics include the effects that will arise in the long run. The average global temperature of the 20th century is estimated at about 14 ° C. From 1880 to the present day the temperature has increased almost exactly and two thirds of this increase has taken place after 1975, after the warning of Nordhaus. The world has reached the level of warming that it has now reached 11,000 years ago. When we gather the energy needed to warm the enormous amount of water in the oceans that cover 70% of our planet with the energy needed to warm up the air and the blacks, it means that the temperature increase is actually more than 2 ° C in order to increase the global temperature average by two degrees.

We are experiencing the consequences of our actions, and for this reason the weather is full of more bizarre events than in the past. The unprecedented rainfall on the Harvey hurricane that hit Houston in 2017 was probably 10 times higher due to human-induced climate change. Indeed, the Climate Assessment Center has come to the conclusion that recent extreme precipitation has been increasing steadily since 1950's. At the same time, as seen in California, drought and hot weather fluctuations have also intensified and the amount of rainfall in recent years has decreased, and droughts and fires have become widespread.

And when we reach the now very close 2 ° C temperature rise, we will encounter a situation that will fundamentally affect world economies, agriculture, all infrastructure and climate models. Rising temperatures will cause great damage to non-adaptable ecosystems and species, including coral reefs and creatures in the Arctic regions. The increase in sea level from 5 to 10 meters due to the fact that the Greenland glacier and the Arctic region of the eruption take place at increasingly rapid rates will confront the coastal countries with the risk of large earth loss and small islands becoming completely flooded. A 2-degree increase will determine the presence of many countries.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an organization that advises countries on the causes and effects of climate change, is examining how the world will become in the last few years if the average temperatures, which can possibly exceed two degrees, rise to three degrees, four degrees or more. He is calculating the risks that will lead to global species and extinction, global and regional shortages, and the inability to live and work in the open air in some parts of the world.

Can countries such as the United States, China and India not only limit CO2 emissions but also reduce it to keep our planet below the 2 ° C increase? The danger is coming. Studies based on IPCC data indicate that 95 per cent probability that we will pass the 2 ° C limit by 2100 at the latest and that the harmful effects of climate change can not be stopped by the current attitudes of the countries. In the 2030s that Nordhaus had foreseen, there was little time left.
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